Card-counting Nightmist

I haven't had a chance to play Nightmist yet, but looking through her cards I'm guessing that it would be helpful to keep track of the card values, to, for instance, know how badly you will screw your allies with Oblivion.  The spell values are

• 8 cards with spell value 1,
• 11 cards with spell value 2,
• 13 cards with spell value 3, and
• 8 cards with spell value 4.

One way to keep track of the average value of her deck is as follows:

Start with a count of 2.  Every time you draw a card (including your initial hand, naturally), modify the count as follows:

• Spell value 1: add 3
• Spell value 2: add 1
• Spell value 3: subtract 1
• Spell value 4: subtract 3

​The average value of the next card drawn is 2.5 + (count)/2*(cards remaining).  Naturally I don't expect to actually do that division; just, if the count is high and you have few cards left, you know some big numbers are coming.

I'm not yet sure how useful this will actually be in practice.

I was thinking of something a little different. First, figure out what number you are trying to target. Let's say 3. So you want to see how many 3s o 4s are left in the deck. Since there are 21 total, use damage tokens to put 21 by your character. Every time you draw a 3 or 4, subtract 1 token. While you can always just count your cards, this will give you a quick look as to how many are left. If you want a more precise number and percentage, count of the cards in the deck and just divide to find your chance of drawing a 3 or 4.

Sounds like a lot of work. ;)

shoo shoo Spiff, let people have their fun!

Actually I do think it's a big load for the benefit it gives but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it did, it got me thinking that the only values I'm bmumed to pop are 1s, so counting them when choosing what spell to use seems useful and needing no tracking.

for instance, know how badly you will screw your allies with Oblivion.

That's why I love Visionary+Nightmist.  (yes I know, I pretty much think Visionary should be on every team)

A little Twist the Ether and cards like Oblivion aren't nearly as risky.  Make the first damage cold for AZ, or drop it one to save you teammates, then pump up the other side for the damage.  There's a lot of other ways they really work well together.

As for card counting it's also interesting to look at what cards have what numbers.

Like the 1's include a bunch of your better spells:  Banishment, Oblivion, Lash, Enlightenment and Mistbound; as well as a starshield necklace.

The 4's include Mistbound and Oblivion, but the other ones are much more expendable.

All four relics have a 3, so if you have some non-3 relics and a call forth, you can fuel Starshield pretty well grabbing those relics.

Of the nine Relics you have:  1 four, 4 threes, 2 twos, and 2 ones.

Spell cards:  5 fours, 6 threes, 6 twos, and 6 ones.

Yeah despite there being a lot of threes, there are pretty even numbers of spell cards.  Cards that can't be pulled from your deck except by drawing them:  2 fours, 3 threes, 3 twos, 0 ones.

What does this tell you?

First don't be afraid to pull all your relics for discards, they aren't too much in any direction, and you can starshield necklace them.

Second, it seems to me that Tome of Elder Magic isn't too bad of an idea if you don't need tons of cards to reflect damage or to be dealing damage with investigation, it is more likely to thin out those ones, (esp if you pull relics too) and leave you with more high numbers than low ones.  Again Non-spell cards:  3 fours, 7 threes, 5 twos, 2 ones.  That gives you pretty good numbers for playing magic.

Also our good friend Mists of Time is great if you can get a bunch of high number cards in your trash early with a few Oblivions in your hand.  It doesn't happen much, but when it does go ahead and kill your friends, it's not your fault they aren't immune to infernal damage.  (although if you have a Tachyon and Legacy and a +1 damage from the environment it's awfull fun to hit the big bad guy for 32 damage with Oblivion.  Using Amulet and Call Forth is a great way to pull this off.  Even if you flip it with 4 or 5 cards, just don't draw your first turn.