Shattered Timelines money/pledge progress

http://www.kicktraq.com provides these really cool charts of progress by day. Let's see if I can include them. For comparison's sake, I'm going to include the one from the EE/IR Kickstarter, too.





Hey, it worked!

So, what conclusions can we draw from this data?

I believe the Shattered Timelines charts will automatically update over time, because the URL for the image will not change.

Thats pretty awesome - But it looks like were getting toward the bottom of the barrel.

What that means? 

GET OUT THERE!!! Link the kickstarter everywhere you can! Throw it up on any forums you visit where people might even remotely be interested! Show off! bring out the love! 

And, throw up your pledge by 5-10 bucks :P

*Edit* -- Can you get the trackers for Rook City? I know popularity is different, but that would be another 'Just Expansion' which would probably be a little better comparison for how Shattered timelines may flow. (maybe)

Didn't look like there was any info for Rook City. See for yourself -- go to Kicktraq, search for Rook City, and then use the tabs to try to get the other tables of info.

I already added $40 to help with someone's shipping fees. I wish more people would help, though. The first day surge was great, but now it's just depressing.

If they gave more information about the game maybe they would get more supporters. When we got the stretch goal of the oversized villain cards, and not a single clue at any of the villains. Lets be honest, that motivates people to support a project. If we reach the new villain deck stretch goal and we get a picture of a [???] then it will be depresing.

There is an entire month, and while its awesome to see all this stuff right away, they do want to keep the love going as long as posisble. They already stated that the new stuff will be announced every tuesday and thursday. The new villians, the new environments, and the new heroes will all make their debut in a proper time. When those come along hopefully there will be some mini surges.

The numbers are clear, I think : the fans have already backed the game (total number of pledgers right now is roughly equivalent to Infernal Relics final backers total). Most of them already had everything. New funders will have to be attracted, if we want to see the bonus hero deck :)

More updates (even if they only show minions or individual cards, or simply art, like the tooth faery) could help.

I'd just like to point out that based on the majority of kickstarters I've been a part of, the funding followed a fairly specific pattern.  It would have a huge surge in the first 2-3 days as loyal/excited fans joined on.  Then it would have very slow growth for the whole rest of the project until the last 48 hours.  The primary reason for this is that when you "star" a project on kickstarter, you get a reminder 48 hours before it's over.  Many people (often including myself) like to wait until the last 48 hours because by then you have a pretty good idea what stretch rewards there will be, so you have a better idea overall of what (in total) you'll be getting.  I've seen a few projects literally double in the last 48 hours.

As a result, I wouldn't be too depressed that things have slowed down.  I'm not saying don't try to recruit more people; I've been posting on facebook and sponsoring international shippers myself.  I'm just saying, don't be too upset if we don't see MAJOR growth again until the last 48 hours.

it hit $60K just now.  I think/hope the promo villain might help generate some more love.  But overall I do agree with broccoli that we probably won't see major surges until the end.

Don't know if you guys have noticed, but weekends are the slowest days. So expect pledges to be up in the coming 5 days. I predict we'll get the next stretch goal on Wednesday.

Thanks for setting this up, arenson9 - greatly appreciate it!

We are tracking very nicely. I'm really looking forward to blowing away that $100k level.

But we do need to keep getting the word out!

I think I've finally convinced at least two of my friends to make some hefty donations to the Kickstarter. I lured them in with the prospect of them furthering our efforts of stretch rewards that they will get too. Hooray!

I have been a fan of the game since the first edition of SotM.  I also own both of the previous expansions, Unity, Ambuscade, and all of the Hero and Villain Promos that have previously come out.  I really don't see the need for the larger villain cards or a play mat, and can't justify another 40 dollars for the EE.

I was hoping to be excited by the new stretch goal decks, but for some reason I was underwhelmed by the first revealed deck (The Assistant).  I'm not sure why it is the case, as being a tad silly isn't the reason.  After all one of the villains I submitted was from "Freedom Five Holiday Special" and had Santa as her Nemesis.

I see getting just the box for EE is no longer even an option in the store anymore, so I doubt that would be added to the al-a-carte options.  So it really is up to the future reveals to get me on the bandwagon.  Otherwise, I'll probably just wait for it to be carried by my local brick and mortar store.

A dismay day with just $780 new pledges.

why not throw in your 30 bucks then for the expansion, guilttrip? Why wait for the brick and motar when you could give it straight to >G?

Quite low for dollars, sure.

17 backers in the day though, which is more than the lowest daily backers from the last kickstarter (16). Average pledge is lower this time around because it's not EE, so there aren't as many people re-buying stuff they already have.

it'll pick up again

there is usually a surge at the end of kickstarters - we can hope someone like Penny Arcade or CAD or other gaming oriented web comics with HUGE followings tweets or posts about the last day of the expansion, and it skyrockets. - that is not out of reach (perhaps those around here who may be semi close with such figures extend a hand to ask for linkage? :) )

Every KS that's gaming related gets people suggesting asking Penny Arcade for a shout out at some point - all it does is leads to people spamming them and they don't give said shout-out. Probably reduces the chance that they do something like that in truth. 

100k should be reached pretty easily, but I'm not sure how much higher the pledges will end. Depending on the surge it could end right around where the EE KS did, or reach up to $150k or so. Bit tough to compare to the EE KS since it was an upgrade + expansion everyone could spend money on, compared to much lower amounts for most people on this KS, so even matching the 111k from that KS would be a huge success IMO. 

good point on that too many people asking.  Can just hope they decide to do it themselves

Frankly I would have loved to put 50$+ on the KS so I can get all the extension, sadly the european shipping fare is too much so I buyed the extension in a shop and will wait for this one to be there too.

IKerensky, I think there's still an offer to pay the shipping fees open in the Solution for internatiol backers thread.

I have given >G a lot of money over the past year, as I am a huge fan of this game. However, I’m also a fan of my local store owners as well.

Also, I think even >G would admit for the long term of their company it is better to have local (and online) stores selling, carrying and recommending their games, rather than just doing all their sales through the community networking of Kickstarter.

Having said all that, twenty dollars+tax is also cheaper than thirty dollars, if all I will really use is the expansion itself.

Thanks to some help, count me in for the kickstarter :)

Alas, I guess I wont back as much money next time as now I possess all the shinies. But I do hope we can get to 80k... and dream of 100k :p

No need to worry about the next kickstarter as there won't be one! This is it for them as they are big enough now to produce a product on their own. 

Now that Dreamer preview… that is a reason to join the KickStarter, even though she is just part of the base expansion. It is such a simple, yet elegant, design.

understood in that regard - I support the heck out of my FLGS when I get the chance. In this case though, supporting the game story can't help me get the Extra Hero :P So thats what I'm hoping for!

Absolutely. Christopher has clearly said that he is happy for people to purchase the game directly or through distributors or stores. The vast majority of their sales go to distributors and then to stores, which helps get the game to a lot more people.

I'm betting today will bump the averages a little...

Hopefully the last 48 hour rush crowd will also be aware of the possibility of Vengeance happening, so that flood of pledges at the end will be even bigger. Assuming we can somehow get word out that people should bump their pledges up to get our chances of reaching $150K much higher.

Where did they say this?  Link please?

We've said so various times and places before, but I'll say it again here and now: this is the last Kickstarter we will run for Sentinels of the Multiverse expansions.

We will be using Kickstarter for other, non-SotM games, though.

Hope this helps.

Those dastardly >G devs!

It was PAYDAY today!  They sure know how to make me move my budget around to fit in another 40 bucks... XD

Edit

Interesting information can be pulled from this. We are seeing about twice the number of people pledging every day as compared to EE+Infernal for the same amount of money (which makes sense, given that this is just an Expansion... though know with the promise of so much more!)

SHOULD that stay truew, then we can expect quite the jump in the last 2 days.

Also, youll notice a jump in the EE cycle to about 4k a day instead of the 2k they were doing. I wasnt around for that kickstarter, so I don't know what was there - a particullarly awesome Stretch Reward? or a payday weekend? Given the status of this stretch reward we might be lucky to find a similar bump now - with 12 days left we have to average abotu 5.5k a day, or so, to make the 150k mark. we're about to hit 5k today as of this posting, so there is a good ch ance....

There is a good chance, yes. At least for US customers, adding more money for Vengeance is a good deal. For international backers, not so much - unless the 150k goal is exceeded and new free rewards are added with/for Vengeance. For me, the $40 shipping for Shattered Timelines was worth it for the 3 promo decks (as they are so hard to find in Europa that I would have had to order them in the US anyway), but I can't justify $40 more for shipping or a six month delivery delay, right now.

If I had better income, I would have already added $80 anyway, but alas... It is more reasonable to wait to buy it in store here in France,even if it makes me feel guilty !

I just posted a thread asking if there was a way we could help some of our overseas brethren with the double shipping thing.  If the >Gods are willing, I will be offering to pay a few overseas shipping slots for people to add Vengeance to their pledges.

And >G said that for the International Shippers, Gessen can still be a pickup for both ST and Vengence or if they wish to wait the additional time have everything shipped as one package in Oct and pay the shipping only once.

Nice job Sentinerds!!

We passed the $90K mark just now.  I am still skeptical we'll make the $150K mark... but what the heck, I upped my pledge anyways.

I can't wait for this kickstarter to be over so I don't have to keep checking it and throwing more money at them. :-P

Sentinerds?

I thought this fan base was simply referred to as "sentinels," with a lower-case "s".

Ex: Legacy is a Sentinel. Evandan55 is a sentinel.

Ha, well you guys know better than I what the official terminology is. I am relatively new here... but we sure do geek out about this game a lot, so I thought the title was appropriate.

In any case, almost $8K was raised today... if we can keep something remotely close to that for the next week, that $150K might be reachable after all.

Can't say I am too excited about waiting another year for the Vengeance expansion... but I suppose I'll just try to forget about it after the kickstarter closes and be "surprised" when it is released.

We haven't really given ourselves a name, exactly. I just assumed if there was a fan name for us, it'd just be sentinels. Usually we've just called ourselves (and been called) Sentinels fans.


Yeah, I don't actually like the "Trend" chart on Kicktraq, as I don't think it does a good job of representing the surge most projects see in the last day. That's just my opinion, though.

The "Projection" chart is pretty interesting, but I don't know how valid it is, either.

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There is a link there under the 'Trending at' sectionon the top of the kicktraq page you should read.

Trending is just a straight exposition of previous days. It is -not- predictive in any manner, and very unlikely to be accurate.  It simply is a 'If you are lucky enough to continue exactly as you have been doing up to this point'

The predictive cone on the other hand takes into account the general curve and an allowance for varriance. If you were watching it you'll have noticed that up till the announcement of Vengeance and the huge jump we had on friday, the cone was getting smaller and smaller as it was getting a more accurate picture of where we were heading. That jump has thrown a loop into the prediction plans, as will have this second jump.... Id say unless some big time surge of population hits i n the last day we're still heading for the lower end of the projection scale, but who knows? Its hard to predict these things. Depends a lot on Word of Mouth and what people want and are interested in.

In fact, look at this link

http://blog.kicktraq.com/the-state-of-projections/

which talks about Projections and how they are used. Amusingly it has Infernal Relics as its frist example - which is nice bcause it shows us the projection trend over the state of the project as acomparaison - IR didnt have the jumps were getting with the announce of Vengeance. youll notice on the vengenance anouncement days, there was a massive jump - 10k  yesterday but only 55 new backers? 8k the first day but only 40 new backers? Before we were doing 30-40 backers at 2kish. Its interesting to see, which means a majority of that money is certainly coming from people upping to include Vengeance.

we also see that we have over 1500 today alone at 8am EST (i believe Kicktraq is on EST or Central time) and only 9 new backers. The amount of new backers coming to the project per day isnt changing (though perhaps more of them are pledging /more/ than an average of 50-75 dollars - that would be likely expansion+Shipping+couple of alacart items before - and now including vengeance in their pledges (putting around 100dollar pledge or so) 

Which can then be taken that the only way we are going to hit 150k is ... A) Pray for a jump at the end (Common) as people waiting get in at the last minute, and we all work to get friends who havent pledged to pledge now or b) we who have already pledged for Shattered timelines, up our pledges for Vengeance.

Finally - http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-duration

there is a very awsome chart in that post that shows a very common trend - last day or 2 is /very/ commonly higher for a successfully funded project. Now that doesnt say if those projects used in that graph were already funded before the end day, or if they needed a final push to -get- funded. But still, i would hazard a guess that there is usually a bump in the last few days, given that a lot of people will go 'Crap i wanted to fund that, but put it off to make sure I had the money!' and pledge.

So where am i going with this? (besides being a pretend number geek with no actual knowledge of economics, statistics, or anything else related to this kind of information?)

Go get your friends to pledge and if you want vengeance in 2013 instead of 2014, then pledge now!

Hmmm... looks like we lost almost $400 this morning in pledges

We need a Vengeance update, STAT!!!

Yeah, we really need to keep up momentum through the Thanksgiving holiday if we want to get to the 150k level.  An update should help that quite a lot. 

Updated! And there will be more updates forthcoming over the holiday, so hopefully that helps out too.

I hope you guys are able to enjoy the holiday…

Agreed.  Eat some turkey and stuffing before you go and fret about us, guys.  We can handle Thanksgiving without Sentinels updates.  And if we can't, we'll just have to give you more of our money.  It's a win-win!

They can enjoy te holidays AFTER we reach $150K!! No sleep till Vengeance!!!

J/k guys… have some turkey between updates. 

We'll see. I'm loading up my netbook with pictures and files now so I can keep the delicious updates coming in between bites of turkey and pumpkin pie.

Well…as long as the turkey and pumpkin pie are also delicious, I SUPPOSE that's ok.

The other day I realized they've got the perfect schedule for updates. Since we get big reveal updates on Tuesdays and Thursdays, we'll be getting a Thanksgiving treat of the second hero reveal (for the public), and then, finally, next Tuesday, the 48 hour mark will hit. And what better way to begin the last 48 hour rush?

The reveal of Future Legacy.

Or Future Team

The other day I realized they've got the perfect schedule for updates.

It is almost as if we've planned it :D

Well played.

But this means you're likely going to drop that final update right when I'm in the middle of my longest classes next Tuesday! NOOOOOO!

Hey, quick, while you guys over there are having your Thanksgiving thingy, spread the word out to more people overseas who won't be busy sitting around eating turkey and cake or whatever - they must have spare time because they're not having Thanksgiving, and they must have more money because they're not spending it on all the food and presents or whatever you do on that day :D.

Essentially, those of us over here in the States will be eating non-stop all day.

Though, I do that every day. It's just, now we do it with our families.

Have fun doing whatever you all do! We'll all be enjoying a day off! 

Yeah, we do the Orphans Thanksgiving… meaning everyone too broke to go home to see their folks. I'm looking forward to a long day of turkey, wine, side dishes, beer and my own "Native" Mexican contributions including Colache, Frijoles de Olla and maybe cactus salad. Also my g.f. is baking up a storm, she is southern so Sweet potato pies.

I'm honestly not a huge fan of turkey. I usually eat ham instead.

But the main food of Thanksgiving for me is mashed potatoes. No gravy--just buttered mashed potatoes.

Oh, yes. Potatoes are pretty much the only thing about the holiday I care about!

For me, it is all about the stuffings.

This.

Thanksgiving is fun for me, but I'm a vegetarian (due to taste rather than any moral code, mind you).  Usually it's my dad's homemade macaroni and cheese, potatoes, cranberry salad, etcetera.  This year I'll be having a nice big slice of an Esperanto Modern English Grammar paper and a big helping of a Physiological Psychology research paper.  Prosopagnosia flavor.  Delicious.

In Canada our Thanksgiving happen In October. We don't have turkey or sweet potatoes, cranberry sauce or pumpkin pie. We eat Moose meat, with a side of beaver, maple trees covered in Maple syrup, snow from our outdoor igloo, then beat each other senseless with hockeys sticks.

I'm joking, we don't celebrate it in October. :P

ALl kidding aside, our Thanksgiving is simialr to the USA but it's in October.Last year, my thanksgiving included a Tur-duck-en. Turducken looks too much like Turd uck en. The bird was amazing! Never ate so happily in my life. We also had two stuffings in it. One with beef, the other with ham. We had a meal that contained Turkey>Ham>Duck>Beef>Duck.... 

EDIT: Hockey Ticks Became Hockey Sticks

Sooo… how can you tell the difference between that and every other day in Canada?

UXM266, you just convinced me that I could live happilly in Canada.

No Thanksgiving here in Strasbourg,France, but I suspect the "Marché de Noël" (Christhmas market - a tourist attraction in this town) will soon begin, so I will drink hot spiced wine and eat sugar covered coconut cakes while wishing you all well.

I will also celebrate a "cgrater day".

Oh the other days is quite simpe. We actually apologize for our actions, and in the summer we use lacrosse sticks.

I wish I lived somewhere with hockey ticks.

Well, what you except to happen after getting punched in the face multiple times, your head hitting a board, the ice at top speeds? A few ticks and twitches are expected!

Oh yes, I had almost forgotten. Once today is over, starting tomorrow, my entire country will suddenly become obsessed with Christmas. It's a little terrifying. I mean, I like Chirstmas just as much as the next person, but every year, it's like this massive storm of obsessing over this one day. 

But at least it means a month of the best cookies anyone has ever had.

evandan55: My body is ready.

I sure hope so, o month of christmas cookies will take a toll! (it took a lot not to make a tollhouse joke there…)

My body is always ready.

I just got really  bad feeling. Really bad... Some guy on kickstart comments that he plan to lower his pledge if we dont hit 150k and just buy vengenance in stores. I wonder what happen if we get to some lvl its reward got revealed and later ppl will unpledge like this so total will be lower than this lvl. for example if total will be 99000 we will not get scholar? The day it will got lowered will be sad day indeed...

This is derailing into a holiday topic and food. I might as well add. We don't have Thanksgiving here in the Netherlands either, obviously. But we do have something called 'Sinterklaas'. The guy from Canada was joking with his moose meat and such, but what I'm about to tell about 'Sinterklaas' is dead serious. No joke.

Sinterklaas is the patron saint of children. He was born in Myra, Turkey. He's kind of like a mix of Santa Claus and the tooth fairy. He comes from Spain (not the North Pole) and every year he takes a boat from Spain to the Netherlands (yeah, he gets around) to celebrate his birthday here, which is on the 6th of december. His boat arrives a few weeks before that date. From the moment he arrives, children can put a shoe (filled with hay or carrots or sugar for the horse) at the chimney (or somewhere else if you don't have a chimney). At night, Sinterklaas rides on his white mare over the roofs, and drops small presents in those shoes.

He's being helped by 'Zwarte Pieten' ('Black Peters'), which are black servants. Yes, this is getting weird, and this probably (there are a few different theories) stems from our history, with Spain as our arch enemy in the 80 Year War (1568-1648), and the Moors (black North Africans) helping/serving the Spaniards in trying to kill us. Anyway. On the 6th of December is the 'grand finale'. Then he drops the big gifts through the chimney. Much like the gifts under the Christmas tree. But then around your shoes.

Adults usually celebrate his birthday on the 5th of december in the evening, with exchanging gifts which are wrapped in creative packages, accompanied by little rhymes to describe the contents of the package or the person who gets the package. It sometimes leads to some very akward and embarrassing moments. Luckily, in this day and age, we have 'rhyme generators' which you can freely use to generate rhymes for you.

The sweets that go with this are 'pepernoten' and 'speculaas'. Both are made from cookie dough and the dough contains some very typical herbs with a very distinct flavour .

His boat arrived last Saturday, so the whole circus is in full swing now.

It's not that different from Santa Claus, though some specifics differ.

Also note that the Zwarte Pieten look pretty much like what Americans know as black-face, to the horror of unsuspecting American tourists :P it's not really the same (at least not anymore); I know that I as a child never made the link between Zwarte Pieten and actual dark skin. I think it's because as a child you think the Zwarte Pieten are real, and they look completely different from people with actual dark skin (obviously), so they're clearly not connected whatsoever! Zwarte Pieten got like they are because they go down chimneys all the time during training, and they have amazing flexibility and balance, and were pretty much supernatural fairytale characters to me and everyone else I know. So it's not as disturbing as it may look to outsiders :)

Anyway, back on topic, is it just me or have pledges been sloooow the last two days or so? I had good hopes of at least making the extra promo card (PLEASE BE HAKA), and maybe even Vengeance, but now I'm not so sure anymore. I expected a huge boost from the Vengeance announcement, but perhaps people are slow to catch on? I've been worried a bit about people withdrawing their pledges as well, but I think it won't be too much of a problem.

If withdrawing pledges could affect the goal as i said in my example the situation is quite different and people are slow to catch on. People complain that there is no promo card for buying  vengegance and that means its better for them to buy it in stores. The point there IS a promo card - and i am talking of course of the 125k one. If people do start lowering pledges because there is no promo card - there is a big chance that there would not be a one because we will revert to amount lower than 125k. So this one is the last shiny promo card from last kickstarter - pretty awesome in my opinion. Don`t make haka sad - don`t revert a pledge. Better fuel him with power of VENGENANCE.

If we hope to have some jump in money i think we need good update.

LCinn, I'd say, half-jokingly, that last Vengeance update was full of clearly stated facts, and so was far less effective than the usual mysterious, full of suggested secrets, updates

Next Vengeance Update will probably give us strange allusions to speculate with, art with mysterious decriptions and vague hints, so we can hope !

Yeah - give us a vague information of the fifth prime warden. Or hippocalypse. Or fright train - that could work :)

I'm honestly not too worried about losing a stretch goal. There will be a signficant amount of last-minute pledges towards the end which will ensure that it doesn't drop too low.

I'm more worried (and frustrated) about folks not pledging because they aren't sure it's going to hit $150k, and we miss it because of all those folks who don't pledge because we didn't get to $150k - a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But, in all honesty, I'm just glad the Kickstarter is doing so well in general! It's great to see how many people love the game as much as we do. Shattered Timelines has exceeded the Infernal Relics Kickstarter, which had a higher level of entry costs (with the Enhanced Edition being more expensive than Vengeance), including almost 150% of the backers.

It's probably due to the holiday here in the USA - I wouldn't worry too much about it.

ah! I hadn't thought of that. Makes sense!

I would encourage people to not remove their pledges. We've got plans, and I'd like to see this get as far as possible to make those plans happen.

We're going to do everything we possibly can to make this worth everyone's time and money. It's what we want, too.

Sounds like there may be some more treats lurking ahead then? My advice to all the fence sitters out there is to up your pledge already and make 'em show us these plans

Well, now we need to point the pledgers to this post from Christopher

(By the way, I can't help myself but to read the sentence in your signature as follow : "Don't hint at all if it is honorably possible to avoid hinting; but never hint soft " - Christopher.)

Just to let you know. I upped my pledge from 45 (ST + Canadian SHipping) to 100 (ST + V + Candian SHipping *2).

Upped my pledge to incldue VENGENCE! Jope that helps!

I won't be downing my pledge now that we've got the whole "Shattered Vengeance" reward level. I'm happy for paying for both now, even if getting Vengeance comes in 2014. No big deal.

Maybe locking in the oversized villain cards with your kickstarter pledge (regardless of whether we make the $150k mark or not) will help discourage people from lowering their pledges. It will at least saw them a few bucks in the long run. 

I'm in for $75 and I'm not dropping it regardless, for the same reasons.

My hope is that the Vengeance reveals get it close to $125,000 and then (Evil) Legacy saves the day by getting it to $150,000 after his reveal on Tuesday.  (He's the only Shattered Timelines reveal left, correct?)

what if 125k is Legacy's father? it will be epic!

Alright, so the last few days have been at 2.5k, the jump begins in the last 48 hours since that is when the reminding e-mail kicks in. As of right now we are at $118,564, so that is $31,436 to go. If it at least continues on the next three days at 2.5k that'll be 7.5k that as been made, bringing the needed amount to $23,936. Considering Infernal Relics had made $14,201 in the last two days it seems close, but considering more people are probably using kickstarter now and that Shattered Timelines is already doing 137% better than Infernal Relics (if I am doing the math right) means we should expect the last 2 days to be increased by $19,455. Sadly it falls $4,481 shy of the goal line, but once again there are a lot more people out using Kickstarter and all it will take is 149 people pledging at the $30 level to make the last $4,481 to get obliterated.

I don't see why Vengeance wouldn't be able to release next year.  Unless anyone sees something I may have done wrong? I believe that it will at least reach 150k before, if not beyond it.

Ronway, the flaw in your math is calculating money/backer.  Infernal Relics averaged $93/backer.  Shattered Timelines is currently averaging $68/backer.  More backers, yes, but each is giving less money, so you can't just do direct calculation quite as cleanly.

Assuming that the average/backer remains constant, I beleive that the last 48 hours will see a jump of $15-17 thousand.

Still, we're going to get very close, and that doesn't include possible boosts from people realizing we will make it to Vengeance and upping their pledge at the last minute.

The kicktraq "projection" shows this project ending between $135k and $162k.  The $150k goal sits squarely in the middle of that range, so I would say we still have a really good shot at making it.

It looks a little less promising today.  We need something to give us some more momentum to close out with.  We ideally need to pull in $7k per day from here out to hit $150k.

Back of the envelope math:

We are currently at $125410 with 1811 backers.

Assuming that international backers represent a little more than 10% of this number (call it 200 international backers).  Let's also assume that all 200 of those international backers have already backed for ST, Vengeance, and have paid one shipping charge.  (Eliminating the international backers just makes it a little easier to do the fast math.  See the note at the bottom of this post).

These assumptions would mean that there are 1611 domestic backers who have pledged $97410 collectively for an average of $60.47 per backer.    If every backer was in for ST and Vengeance, we would expect the average to be around $70 per backer.  

Bottom line: my math indicates that somewhere between 350 and 400 backers have not pledged for Vengeance yet.  If those backers pledged for Vengeance, we would hit $141k instantly.

Note: I essentially removed the international backers and those who have pledged for additional items.  When these are factored in, it actually indicates that my estimate of how many have not yet backed Vengeance is too low.  We may have upwards of 500 backers who have not adjusted their pledge to get Vengeance.  It is entirely possible that if everyone who has not pledged for Vengeance does so, we will hit the $150k mark instantly.

I see a problem here, and it´s the fact that we may not get to 150k plus the fact that there is almost no extra stuff for backing vengeance. I think a lot of domestic backers just think that maybe we don´t get to 150k and if we do, they are just getting the same that they will get in the shop with almost no extra goodies and maybe paying a little more money, 1+ year in advance, and that turns them off.

And it´s a pitty because it will be very very close. I think that being that close, it would be a self-fulfillng prophecy if >G stated that they will keep the 2013 schedule for backers of vengeance even if we don´t hit 150k, and that would get us to the 150k. And if they throw an extra deck there (hero or villain, no matter what) for the backers, that would guarantee the 150k for sure since all that people who are just lazy backing vengeance will jump in ASAP.

The people are more pragmatic now than ever, and if they don´t get any advantage for paying maybe a little more and upfront (and the oversized villains are ok but are barely enough), it´s hard for them to justify the pledge, but any substancial goodie (essentially a deck, but I think that any deck would work, maybe even an enviroment, as long as backing is the only way getting it) would seal the deal.

I think there should just be a final update that pushes more about Vengeance when the 48 mark hits. The Future Legacy update will help, but if we really want a fighting chance at getting $150K, we really need to give the last 48 hour crowd to bump up their pledges. I don't know if they announced it eariler, but it'd help a lot if they pushed the fact that they've got the "Shattered Vengeance" reward level as well. It's totally possible for us to make it--I just think Vengeance needs to be advertized more. It would certainly help if they released the box art for Vengeance that features some of the new heroes. That could cause more interest.

GtG should have add a 160-170k rewards. Perhaps tied to Vengeance.

Yep. The elephant in the room is three bonus decks, 8 promo cards and tokens on ST versus diddly squat on Vengeance. It's easy to see why people are maybe holding back.

I would love to pledge for this kickstart, I've missed the other ones, and If I hadn't bought any expansion it would be worthwhile because the shipping cost would be dilluted in the content obtained.

The problem is that beeing an international fan, with everything except the oversized villain cards, what I'm getting for my pledge (the $30 one) has a total ~$20 difference from what I could get from retail, even includding buying the promo decks online and get them shipped to portugal. If I included vengence the difference would be ~$60.

That's the double a USA supporter pays...

I know that >G has major costs in shipping this overseas, and I know that they haven't a better alternative. But I believe that many potential overseas supporters, like me, have looked away from this kickstart because of the overall cost of the final product.

I don't want to end my first post here on a negative note, so I'd like to thanks >G for this great game and for all the support they give in this forum, BGG or mail responses. Keep up the good work ;)

The problem with adding more promo decks to Vengeance is the fact that Vengeance itself being released in October 2013 is techincally a reward in itself. If they were to offer promo decks to go along with Vengeance's already large payload, they'd probably be taking a loss.

I know they cannot offer 3 promo decks and all the stuff they offer for a full kickstarter porject, but I think that if they offered an exclusive deck instead of the oversized villains, it could have made the difference. Just tell the people they will get some playable deck that they will not be able to get otherwise, and watch them jump the wagon. The oversized villains are cool, but they don´t give you new gameplay posibilities, you can play the same villain without them, but a new deck? That's more gameplay and it has great value to both players and collectors. At least that´s my POV because that's what made me wish to pledge so much.

We're just a few hours from the 48 hr mark when the Kickstarter reminder will be sent. We're about 20k to Vengeance. It's going to be a nail biting finish. I feel that we have a chance.

GtG has said that they have "plans". Can't wait to see what those plans are. In my opinion, I hope it'll be some simple and effective. Announcing a new stretch goal at $170k probably isn't going to help. Increasing the some new promos at the same $150k level definitely will.

Ok, 1 more backer :P

I really hope the news they have for today are more stuff added to current pledges... that would make my 80$ pledge for just ST and Oversized Villain Cards more worthy.

I'm really excited to watch this big finish unfold. I'm gonna be constantly checking the numbers for the next two days. Two hours until liftoff.

I agree, this one's going to be close and exciting.  I hope they get today's reveal up early, so that the people who get the reminder emails will see Bad Legacy when they click through.  

Actually, they should do a big recap update also, so the people on the fence can quickly see all that they can get for pledging.  It really is impressive.

It already includes 8 promo hero cards, three full promo decks (one each villain, hero, environment), 2 bonus token sheets, and oversized villain cards for the new villains (with reprints of the ones that were not printed correctly in the original set)

Quite a bit of bonus content in there already

I agree they have more than enough stuff thown in to attract anybody to shattered timelines, what I fear is that a lot of people won´t feel the need to upgrade to vengeance. But we just entered the last 48 hours and have just a little over 130k. 10k per day is doable. It will be exiting. I glad I have lost my kickstarter virginity with this one. XD

Well I can be wrong but... why not offer a surprise hero/environment/villain deck to be shipped with Vengenace if we reach 150k ? they dont have to decide yet what it is and they have about one year to device something.

Or even better :

Everybody that choose to support vengeance with this Kickstarter will receive a promo version of every character card in Vengeance expansion. Actual cards not to be seen (except to playtester) until Vengeance actual release ! (I think they can afford the printing of 7 more cards ?).

It does provide some great content, and if I was in the USA it would be a no-brainer, I would be all in for ST+Vengeance.

Since I'm in Portugal, unfortunatelly I would have to pass the vengeance expansion... I pay for ST the same amount an American fan pays for ST+Vengeance. The shipping costs double the price of the product.

It was a struggle to justify myself the investment, but in the end I decided the extra money would go directly to the exceptional persons that make this game and would help them to release Vengeance earlier.

The counter has hit 48 hours left! Hopefully that update is gonna go up soon so the people who get the reminder email can see all the bonuses they could get, and really push Vengeance. I'd love to have some Vengeance promo cards, but if $150k is just the benchmark to get Vengeance released Oct 2013, we'd probably have to go beyond $150k to get such promo cards. If we get Vengeance in 2013, we're already getting the oversized villain cards.

@Odin_knight: one of my overseas shipping sponsorships opened up, so if you would like to up your pledge for Vengeance, send me a PM and I will cover your shipping cost for that ($40). 

PM sent.

wow, I've never thought that people here could be so altruistic!

Thank you very much for your generosity.
 

Ha. It's really only partly altruism… and partly an overwhelming desire to reach $150K so we can have Vengeance earlier!! 

We just jumped two and a half grand in less than ten minutes - game on!

Let's get that WWII Legacy! Finally, Wraith will be tied for most promo cards!

Called it. well, sorta… nearly… :)

4.5K in a couple hours and now that vengeance is comming no matter what and with a promo card if it hits 150k, I think almost everybody will up their pledges. I think we´ll make it! 

This morning it was at 130,000. 20,000 in 48 hours is a lot. But now, only 4 hours later, we're at 139,000. We're totally going to make 150,000.

Right on.

141K one hour later. This is amazing 

EDIT: I was thinking that maybe there was a lot of people that was waiting to back the project till the last 48 hours to see how many stretches we got and they were coming with the 48h remainder finding the huge amount of free extras we are getting, but I just looked at today's graphs on the first page, in the last update we got 10.525$ but just 28 new backers, so that huge amount of money is probably from people waiting to upgrade to vengeance if we get to 150k and reacting to the news that we will have it no matter what.

Grampa Legacy to the rescue!

10k in an hour is crazy good. Now hopefully we can get >G to annouce more goals to get those on the fence for 1 promo to jump into it too.

Well, we got those 10k in 4-5 hours, but it´s crazy good either way :P

Everyone! Here my words! By upping your pledge 5$ and purchasing another deck or a new batch of tokens we can make it! Only with ALL our backer powers combined!

As of right now, this day is the 3rd highest income day of the Kickstarter. 

Day 1: $33,699

Day 2: $12,886

Day 29:$12,140

Less than a thousand to make this day the second highest :).

--Edit--

I think it just got passed..shot up as I was writing this.

I upped mine 15 for an extra of each promo deck for a friend.

You mean second highest income : $13k, at this moment.

As we near the end of this Kickstarter, I remember that the previous Kickstarter was also well funded (at $111k of $20k).  That also reminded me of the first Kickstarter, when the game was very new (having been release just a month prior at GenCon), which only had a stated goal of $12k, 45 days to fund (rather than the 30 days for the other two), and made $27k.  Just shy of $28k which would have more art released, and the $30k which would have given everyone a T-shirt.  Everyone was so excited about possibly getting $40k, which would have given us Mad Bomber Blade much earlier (I can only assume it was Mad Bomber Blade).

One thing that has me intrigued is what would have happened at the $50k level.  It was listed as a stretch reward, and it had been stated that if they were to raise such funds, they'd be beside themselves, and that they have an amazing product that they’d like to produce that this would help fund and would directly improve everyone’s Sentinels of the Multiverse experience.  They said it was a far off dream, but, in the following kickstarter, they managed to double funding, and with this one they may have even tripled that amount.  I really want to know what this amazing and helpful product would have been.

Maybe the $50K would have been oversized villain cards?

It was a combo of oversized villain cards and what became the Enhanced Edition box. We wound up scrapping the stand-alone upgrade in favor of the full Enhanced Edition, since we had to reprint the game any way after selling out.

OMG. Just got home from a board game season and found the KS at 147K on the dot. And it has been only 10 hours. 17.585$ just today. I had hopes about getting to 150K barely in the last hours, but this is amazing. I´m so happy to have backed this project, so I have to thank again CGRATER. Without his help it would have been imposible for me to do it.

Let's see how this finish but >G shoud start thinking about new stretches :P

Added an extra $5 for a Legacy deck to see how well 2 Legacy works. Can only imagine Grandpa Legacy + Young Legacy facing off Iron Legacy.

And.... $150k !

Couldn't be happier about this, I've been salivating about that Legacy promo since they posted it this morning. Now I get to play a Legacy + Girl Legacy + Old Timey Legacy vs Iron Legacy game and break the goddamn space time continuum.

Luckily I got some cash in today, so I was able to pledge enough for Shattered Timelines.

I'm not sure if I was the $30 to push it over 150k or just before it, but damn it felt good to be that close to the mark.

We did it! And there's still more than 24 hours left!

Final bets are being taken now! I was pretty accurate about the first 24 hours of the Kickstarter, so I'll take another guess. We finish at...

$162,000

I'm really excited that we got to see such a big increase in such a short period. It nearly got close to touching the first day! 

I hope Christopher is planning something to make the few hours left memorable :) Let's see, we had an update planned for the 150k mark. We maybe will see one (or two ?) last update about vengeance (Blade? the heroes?)... Maybe some new stretch rewards...

I think the Greater Team will need a few days off after this campaign !

It'd be nice to see something as simple as the silhouettes of the Vengeance heroes, but that might give away too many spoilers.

Hoping I get my mind blown in this last 24 hours... otherwise it'll be a bit anti-climactic. 

Haha. So spoiled...

Apocalypse, NOW !

Hey, new update!

Oh, nice! My friend was right! At $175k, we get another promo environment, and it's the post-apocalyptic world that Haka lives in! Weeks ago, before they even put out Chrono-Ranger's bio, a friend of mine said there would probably be an environment like this based on a card in the Time Cataclysm environment. I'm gonna have to congratulate him on the solid guess.

I hope my final total a few posts ago was wrong. Let's blow way passed that! (We probably will anyways!)

I wonder which timeline this post apocalyptic world is from.  Main continuity...iron legacy...or perhaps another since Chrono Ranger's purpose in life has been to avert that future.  Maybe our Main continuity is the timeline changed by chrono ranger's efforts and this would have been from another timeline entirely.

That's what I had thought. I assumed this world is a result of Plague Rat beating the heroes and the infection getting out of hand. Then Chrono-Ranger winds up there, stuff happens, then he jumps back in time and helps the heroes kill Plague Rat, and they succeed. Apocalypse averted.

Oh! I really hope this environment will include Con to help the heroes. Maybe he'll heal all hero targets by 1 every turn he's out. That'd be fun!

*sings* And now I'm wishing for the End of Times ... (kudos to who knows this song !)

What better way to end a kickstarter than have the end of times as a reward ??

I don't know if this future is already averted or not by the actions of Chrono-Ranger and friends, but it is soooo far away in the future that the writers can have it prevented/not prevented as often as they want, there is plenty of time for monster destruction / monster resurection / villain brings back monsters / there was an egg left / you forgot a locus / military experiment on Plague Rat remnants gone wild and so on :)

Wow.  Tough stretch goal!  Hope we can make it, because that looks awesome!

There's nearly 2000 backers. everyone add $10 now?

I'd only be able to spare another $5. I don't see too much incentive for people to bump up their pledges by $10 right now, especially with so many people also paying for Vengeance and whatnot.

But as I've said before, if we do make it to $175k, then I'll throw in another $5.

This new environment is based on the year 2300 AD where Lavos has destroyed the world and is leaving to destroy other worlds.  The job of the heroes is then to go back in time in order to avert Lavos from destroying the world in the first place, as well as to protect the Frozen Flame and unite the two timelines created by the time split resulting from whether or not a certain hero survives, as well as helping a certain scholar concerning a time crash.

Yeah the only reason I'd have to up my pledge now is for additional stretch reward items. Which I would totally do, but not quite sure if it's worth it at the moment. We'll see how things look tonight, I guess.

is this the stretch environment we missed in infernal relics?

This sounds about right. I recall 2300 AD being mostly populated by monsters and a scholarly man. A time-traveller from the past meets up with a robot who helps him continue to travel through time. Totally legit. Lavos will have a card, and it will be nemesis to everything.

What is this Lavos everyone is talking about??

Well, we passed my estimated end amount of $162k. Hooray for me being wrong!

And I'm out of the loop on this "Lavos" as well...

According to the all-knowing Google, he's the end boss pof Chorono-Trigger.

Also, when Lavos merges with Schala in the darkness beyond time, it becomes the Dream Devourer (the alternate end boss for Chrono Trigger DS), and then eventually the Time Devourer (the end boss for Chrono Cross).

Clearly I need to break out the SNES and finish Chrono Trigger.

Or pick up the DS rerelease. Either way: yes.

is this the stretch environment we missed in infernal relics?

Yes, it is! :)

+1

Just 2,000 to go, and only 12 hours left... It's coming right down to it! I'm so excited for the bad ending environment!

Everyone! Raise your pledges by $1!!  

Threw in an additional $25. $174,440 and counting…

Haha. Matched. Who's next?!?!

Anyone think that >G might throw in extra stuff at the end just for a great KS? 

Well we got that delightfully grim future. I hope there will be at least a 185k stretch goal, i'm thinking it may stop about there. I won't be too surprised if it does fly by that though.

Am I the only one to be amazed at the fact that, if we count Unity and Ambuscade with the promo decks from this campaign, we have 2 heroes, 2 environments and 2 villains ? Just two villains short of a full expansion, distributed as rewards ?

And to add a splash, the unlimited promo card versions

I can't wait for a fight between the Eternal Haka, Chrono-Ranger and Greatest Legacy vs Plague Rat in the Final Wasteland...

I'm hoping they final some spare unused card spots on the printing slab and decide to give us 1 final promo card to mark the end of the kick starter. A wildly successful kick starter. The final kick starter in the multiverse.

A celebration.

I would love to see extra stuff at the end to celebrate and all, but thinking about it, but I´m pretty sure they are already losing money with the lowest pledges. I mean, if you take into account what are taking home the people who pledged 20$ or 30$... plus the shipping cost... Luckily for them the average pledge is almost 90$, but I don´t think we can ask for more. In fact I thought that the 175K stretch was going to be just for vengeance backers, but they are giving it away to everybody. Great kickstarter! 

One last promo would be awesome!
But I would gladly trade the last stretch in favor of something special given to the people who helped overseas fans getting the expansions.
For me they're the true heroes of this kickstarter campaign.

"Don't worry about it, citizen. Just knowing you'll have the game is payment enough." International Shipping Man

One of the 5 Heroes in Vengeance.

Suggestion : a "Kiss The Hero" apron for all of them !

Good strong finish at $185k! A good, solid end number! I'd be neat to have another promo card, but I can't see that happening. I'm pretty sure they've filled up every single empty space they've got. I mean, we're getting, what, NINE hero promo cards? They've got every space filled. I'd just like reassurance that all of those promo cards can easily be extracted from the plastic wrap they come in. When I got the promos from IR, the plastic was so tight, I was afraid I'd damage the cards! And promo cards can't be replaced!

I'd like to extend that to the cards in general, but yeah the narrow depth on the promo stacks were particularly difficult last time.

Yeah I'm not really worried about the bigger decks we'll be getting from ST and the mini-expansions. Except maybe the two environments, if they are packaged separately, since 15 cards is still a pretty small deck and the wrap might be too tight.